Euro versus pound - 30.9.10

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Thxs admin...been here all the time, just a bit more reserved than most.

[Ali]

Currency watch October

The financial markets don't seem to be in love with the pound


The charts of Sterling’s performance against the ‘safe-haven’ currencies over the last month are reminiscent of nothing so much as a theme park flume ride. They go down. Down by nine cents against the US Dollar, eight against the Swiss Franc and eight against the Yen. Against the commodity-related Canadian, New Zealand and Australian Dollars the picture is more like the second half of an Alton Towers rollercoaster run. It goes up and down, but the net result is the same.

All bets are off regarding the global economic recovery. That does not mean it has been cancelled. Even über-doomster Nouriel Roubini, the chap who claims to have been the only one to have predicted the financial crisis, gives odds of no better than 3/2 for a double-dip recession. But the mood of the market can flip easily between fear and euphoria. When investors are euphoric they buy Brazilian Reals and Australian Dollars and anything that pays high interest. When scared they buy the traditional safe-haven currencies; the US Dollar, the Japanese Yen and, latterly, the Swiss Franc.

Sterling’s claim to infamy has been the frailty of Britain’s hopeless recent economic credentials. Yes, unemployment has been falling and the economy grew by 1.1 percent in the second quarter of the year, better than Euroland’s 1.0 percent, but investors are under no illusions: In austerity Britain that was probably the top. For the moment at least they are seduced by Germany’s 2.2 percent growth and the prospect of the Teutonic locomotive pulling Greece out of the mire. That, too, might prove to be a mirage but for now at least investors are content to dream.

Investors are blowing hot and cold about everything. Right now they are howling an Antarctic gale over Britain and the pound. Is that a death sentence?

Source: French Paper